I’m closely following that Monero hard fork event, since, as I said in the previous view on xmrusd (March 4), I still have to learn from experience what forks could mean for the “parent” and the “child”. The xmrusd pair didn’t make it through the upper line of the parallel channel.
Yes, the bearish market did help, but the hard fork event itself has suddenly been postponed till the end of April. They say it’s a unique opportunity to get (more) xmv for those who are still craving for it but did not have a chance to buy in February. For me they are clearly off the track, the delay is not a positive news. Imagine a dividend-paying stock shifts the dividend date just like that - you hate it because your projected cashflows are messed up. If you are an options trader, you can lose double (being dividend long in March and dividend short in May expiration).
Currently I’m hesitantly buying back what I sold previously to lock in some profit made on the downtick. I still have a feeling more people may want to dump xmr they bought just for the fork. Instead of that upward trending channel I will look at the downwards sloping green resistance line from now on and until the event.