Mike Novogratz, a billionaire investor and former Goldman Sachs trader made a bold prediction about the cryptocurrency markets during an investment summit.
At the Bloomberg Invest Summit in New York, Novogratz told Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker that he believes the cryptocurrency markets are moving towards the $20 trillion region. The interview was mainly focused on the economics of the cryptocurrency markets, and Novogratz discussed his views on the price cycles and movements of the markets.
When discussing the January market crash, Novogratz compared it to the 1996 dot com bubble, which preceded the 1999 bubble. The two bubbles greatly increased the market capitalization of the tech markets, bringing them to nearly $6 trillion at their high before crashing to $1 trillion. Today, Apple alone is worth nearly $1 trillion.
Novogratz mentioned the rapid pace at which the cryptocurrency markets move, and estimates that based on typical price cycles the markets will rebound in mid-2018 and then continue on to surpass its current all-time high on its way to a $20 trillion-dollar market cap. A rise to $20 trillion would require over a 20-fold increase from crypto’s current all-time high.
“Cryptocurrency is a global revolution. The internet bubble was only a US thing. It was rich US people participating. Cryptocurrency is global. There are kids in Bangladesh buying coins. It is monstrous in Tokyo, in South Korea, in China, in India, and in Russia. We’ve got a global market and a global mania. This will feel like a bubble when we’re at $20 trillion,” said Novogratz.
Although many may see his prediction as bold and unrealistic, Novogratz insists that his prediction is based on real indicators and a realistic view on the state of the markets and the industry. He also notes that current price runs have been fueled by retail investors, and that the majority of the money that will fuel cryptos rise will come from institutional investors.
Currently, the main barrier stopping institutional investors from placing money into the markets is the lack of regulatory clarity and custodian investment solutions. The US government, as well as other world governments, are beginning to make their stances on cryptocurrency regulation clearer, and businesses including Coinbase and Nasdaq are creating solutions that would allow institutional investors to invest with ease.
Novogratz further explained his opinion, saying “It won’t go there ($20 trillion) right away. What is going to happen is, one of these intrepid pension funds, somebody who is a market leader, is going to say, you know what? We’ve got custody, Goldman Sachs is involved, Bloomberg has an index I can track my performance against, and they’re going to buy. And all of the sudden, the second guy buys. The same FOMO that you saw in retail will be demonstrated by institutional investors.”